Comments on: Will Increased Exports Lift the Economy? http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/2010/11/will-increased-exports-boon-the-economy/ Informed reflection on the events of the day Wed, 15 Jul 2015 17:00:00 +0000 hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.4.23 By: Scott http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/2010/11/will-increased-exports-boon-the-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-2240 Thu, 25 Nov 2010 17:17:32 +0000 http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/?p=964#comment-2240 Increasing exports coupled with an increase in trade deficit does represent a strange delimna. Yale Global Online reports that, “Since World War II American exports have doubled about every 10 years, growing at about 8.3 percent each year.” So doubling exports in 5 years does represent quite an acceleration of a process that has been going on for quite awhile. However, the New York Times reported that the trade deficit “narrowed in September,” and the trade deficit with China even decreased slightly, though its still accounts for most of the overall deficit, and is still close to the record high. And while labor in China continues to be extremely cheap, it doesn’t seem likely that increasing exports to developing countries can erase that gap.

So your statement that, “More than ever in U.S. history, U.S. exports depend on U.S. imports and (outside of the farm sector) the most profitable U.S. companies are also those most reliant on the importation of inputs,” points to the fact that it is just plain cheaper for US companies to make components abroad than in the US. This apparently will not change anytime soon; even on a bad day, US workers will not care to compete with workers in Vietnam, or anywhere else, that make between $50 and $70 a month, which is even less than many workers in China. Wages in “emerging markets” are rising overall, but there’s still a way to go until a “level playing field” is reached. Furthermore, the demand stimulated by rising wages, at least in China, is mostly meant for domestic products, not “Made in the USA.” Perhaps this development might ultimately lead to a decrease in the trade deficit; however this hasn’t yet happened in any significant way, but it will be interesting to see what the unintended consequences might be.

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By: Michael Corey http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/2010/11/will-increased-exports-boon-the-economy/comment-page-1/#comment-2139 Mon, 22 Nov 2010 23:04:09 +0000 http://www.deliberatelyconsidered.com/?p=964#comment-2139 Excellent points. From a practical standpoint, it seems to me that a growth economy in the United States will require us to profitably produce more than we consume. While innovation is an important element in the growth equation, so are a number of other factors. Virtually all business investments are based upon estimates of the present value of projected after tax flows adjusted for risk. That implies at the very least, businesses need to have competitive tax rates. There is also a time dimension in the discounting of cash flows, and this directly relates to the ability to move through a permitting process in a reasonable manner and complete the capital project in a cost effective manner. Part of the risk equation includes the projected regulatory environment in which the project will operate long term, and this entails things in addition to regulatory concerns. It does presume the availability of competitive energy, raw materials and effective employees who are willing to learn new skills, multi-task, and operate in a flexible work environment. Many of the human resource issues are linked with innovative organizational structures, participation and a broad range of reward systems. Most of these things have been very difficult to get done. For instance, there is virtual gridlock in obtaining approvals for significant capital projects. This has contributed to the de-industrialization of U. S. industry and a shift towards consumption away from production. The world economy is competitive, and due to our cost structures, we will need to gain an edge through innovation, scale and effective organizational development. I really don’t see any policy initiatives that support this type of redevelopment. I think that this also implies that if the United States is successful, it will probably take some growth away from other economies. This will become increasing difficult as our currency and credit worthiness continues to deteriorate. A weak dollar and high debt leverage have only short term benefits and in the end will produce very negative results. At least, that is what my experience is suggesting. I hope that I’m wrong.

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