I was baffled yesterday when I saw on MSNBC’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” a short question: “Is President Obama also to blame for US economy?” This question referred to an ongoing Gallup poll. And MSNBC presented the answer – 53% of asked people now blaming Obama for the state of US economy. This brief episode of my morning TV routine provides an opportunity for me to revisit the larger problem of the “Power to the Polls,” which I investigated through an article by Jürgen Habermas. I continue to wonder what do polls actually mean in public debate and opinion?
“Is President Obama also to blame for US economy?” This is a bad polling question on so many levels. I am not really an expert on polling, but even I learned in Germany in my “Empirie” class, during my political science studies, that there is a scientific method to polls and questionnaires. One of the first rules: Questions have to be unambiguous, meaning they should be clearly understood. What does “also” mean? Is Obama to be blamed also among other actors? Is Obama to be blamed for the economy also among other issues for which he is to blame?
I could not believe that a professional researcher from Gallup would come up with such a flawed question. So I actually looked at the Gallup poll to which MSNBC’s interpretation refers. The Gallup question is: “How much are George W. Bush and Barack Obama to be blamed for US Economy?” The answer choices are split between Bush and Obama and give the options: a great deal, moderate amount, not much, not at all. This poll is ongoing since 2009. The results published on September 21, 2011 show that 53% of the asked people say for Obama either “a great deal” or “moderate amount” (Bush 69 %). This is what MSNBC translates into 53% say “yes” to the question “Is president Obama also to blame for US economy?”
Not only was the MSNBC presentation of the results stilted. There is also something deeply flawed with the Gallup framing of the question. What does “blame” mean? Did Obama do something? Did he not do something? Is he to blame, because he is the president? What does “for US economy” mean? For there being a US economy? For the state of it? For the structure of it? There are so many underlying assumptions packed into one question that the results do not mean anything. That is why MSNBC can use the poll to translate it into whatever works. I bet Fox News has another translation.
As much fun as it is to nitpick polling questions, there is a serious problem for the public sphere, deliberation and the way media understand their role. Polls have power in today’s public debate. They have been elevated from tools to the actual content of opinion. But how can we debate through polls? They are a bad imitation and surrogate for real, informed opinion and debate that should stand at the core of how we critically deliberate about politics and society. Even worse, they stifle debate, because they present results, not opinions that could generate an informed discussion, even an argument.
Leave a Reply